How far back can you test BNDX? To Jan 1993, with PFORX
What you'd have missed
- BNDX's own data starts in Jul 2013; PFORX extends it to Jan 1993, 20.5 more years.
- Its own history misses the 1998 LTCM sell-off, the 2000–02 dot-com bear and the 2007–09 financial crisis.
- Its worst drawdown, -14.9% (Dec 2020–Sep 2022), is already inside the ETF's own history; the extension does not change the worst case.
- Over the 159 overlapping months PFORX returned 1.1% a year more than BNDX, so the proxy years likely overstate what BNDX would have earned by a similar margin.
How the history is built
Solid bars are the months each fund contributes to the spliced series; the outline shows how far a proxy's own data runs. Each month uses the youngest fund that has data for it; returns are spliced, not prices (dividends reinvested via adjusted close).
How well each proxy tracked BNDX
| Proxy | Kind | Months contributed | Overlap with BNDX | Correlation | Tracking error | Tracking difference | Beta | Vol ratio | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PFORXPIMCO International Bond Fund (USD-Hedged) | mutual fund | Jan 1993–Jun 2013246 months | Jul 2013–Sep 2026159 months | 0.929 | 1.50% | +1.07% | 0.84 | 0.90 | Approximate |
Statistics are over the months a proxy and BNDX both have data. Tracking error is annualized; tracking difference is the annualized geometric gap (positive: the proxy earned more). Page grade: approximate, the worst grade among the proxies that contribute months.
BNDX's own history versus the extended history
| The ETF's own history | Proxy years only | Full extended history | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Window | Jul 2013 – Sep 202613.3 years | Jan 1993 – Jun 201320.5 years | Jan 1993 – Sep 202633.8 years |
| Growth of $10,000 | $13,529 | $44,021 | $59,558 |
| CAGR | 2.3% | 7.5% | 5.4% |
| Annualized volatility | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| Sharpe ratio (risk-free 0%) | 0.58 | 1.81 | 1.31 |
| Max drawdown | -14.9%Dec 2020 → Sep 2022; recovered Feb 2026 | -9.9%Nov 1993 → Aug 1994; recovered Aug 1995 | -14.9%Dec 2020 → Sep 2022; recovered Feb 2026 |
| Worst complete calendar year | 2022 (-12.8%) | 1994 (-7.3%) | 2022 (-12.8%) |
| Best complete calendar year | 2023 (8.8%) | 1995 (21.3%) | 1995 (21.3%) |
| Longest underwater (months) | 61 | 20 | 61 |
| Major declines covered | 2 | 3 | 5 |
The columns cover different years, so a higher or lower CAGR is not a verdict on the fund; the point is which market regimes each window includes. Growth of $10,000 is the same one-asset, buy-and-hold calculation the live portfolio app makes.
Growth of $10,000
Drawdowns
How BNDX did in each major US stock-market decline since 1985
| Decline | S&P 500 | BNDX over the same months | Source of those months |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1987 crashSep 1987–Nov 1987 | -29.8% | not covered | before available data |
| 1998 LTCM sell-offJul 1998–Aug 1998 | -15.3% | 0.8% | PFORX |
| 2000–02 dot-com bearSep 2000–Sep 2002 | -44.7% | 19.9% | PFORX |
| 2007–09 financial crisisNov 2007–Feb 2009 | -50.8% | -0.4% | PFORX |
| 2020 COVID crashJan 2020–Mar 2020 | -19.4% | -0.4% | ETF |
| 2022 inflation bearJan 2022–Sep 2022 | -23.9% | -12.9% | ETF |
The decline windows are computed, not chosen: every peak-to-trough fall of at least 15% (month-end) in the S&P 500 series since 1985. The fund's figure compounds its monthly returns from the month after the S&P 500's peak through the trough.
BNDX's own five deepest drawdowns (extended history)
| Peak | Trough | Depth | Recovery | Source of the decline months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2020 | Sep 2022 | -14.9% | Feb 2026 | ETF |
| Nov 1993 | Aug 1994 | -9.9% | Aug 1995 | PFORX |
| Feb 2008 | Nov 2008 | -9.0% | Jun 2009 | PFORX |
| Apr 2013 | Jun 2013 | -3.7% | Apr 2014 | PFORX |
| Apr 1999 | Aug 1999 | -3.4% | Mar 2000 | PFORX |
This covers declines the equity windows miss, such as the bond bear markets of 1994 and 2022.
Caveats
- Before Jul 2013 the returns are PFORX's, after that fund's own costs; the measured gap while both existed is +1.07% a year.
- Monthly month-end data: intra-month drawdowns were deeper than shown.
- Dividends are reinvested; no taxes or trading costs are modeled.
- Our data source's series for PFORX begins Jan 1993; the fund itself may be older.
Test it yourself
Open BNDX as a one-asset portfolio in the live app, where every number recomputes from fresh data.
Open BNDX (100%) in the portfolio builder →Used in portfolios: Global Asset Allocation, Betterment Core
Used in guides: Betterment Core, Global Asset Allocation
Frequently asked questions
- How far back does BNDX data go?
- BNDX (Intl Bonds (hedged)) has its own monthly data from Jul 2013. Spliced with PFORX it reaches back to Jan 1993, which adds 20.5 years (61% of the extended history comes from proxies). Data through Sep 2026.
- What did BNDX do before 2013?
- Before Jul 2013 the series is PFORX's. Those 20.5 years (Jan 1993–Jun 2013) show 7.5% a year with 4.1% annualized volatility and a worst drawdown of -9.9% (Nov 1993–Aug 1994). In major S&P 500 declines: 1998 LTCM sell-off, 0.8% versus -15.3% for the S&P 500 (PFORX); 2000–02 dot-com bear, 19.9% versus -44.7% for the S&P 500 (PFORX); 2007–09 financial crisis, -0.4% versus -50.8% for the S&P 500 (PFORX). The full extended history's worst drawdown is -14.9% (Dec 2020–Sep 2022).
- How closely does PFORX track BNDX?
- Over 159 overlapping months (Jul 2013–Sep 2026), PFORX had a correlation of 0.929 with BNDX, a tracking error of 1.5% a year and a tracking difference of +1.07% a year (grade: approximate).
Methodology
- Source
- Yahoo Finance via MarketHeist, monthly adjusted close (dividends reinvested). Months run to the last complete calendar month.
- Splice rule
- Each month uses the youngest fund that has data for it; returns are spliced, not prices (dividends reinvested via adjusted close).
- Numbers
- Computed by the MarketHeist portfolio engine as a one-asset, 100% buy-and-hold portfolio, the same calculation the live app makes. Sharpe uses a risk-free rate of 0%. Drawdowns are month-end.
- Correlation
- Pearson correlation of monthly returns over the months both funds have.
- Tracking error
- Standard deviation of the monthly return differences (proxy minus BNDX) times the square root of 12.
- Tracking difference
- Annualized geometric return of the proxy minus that of BNDX over the overlap. Positive means the proxy earned more.
- Beta and vol ratio
- Beta is the covariance of the proxy with BNDX divided by the variance of BNDX; vol ratio is the proxy's standard deviation divided by BNDX's.
- Grades
- Close: correlation of at least 0.95 and tracking error of at most 3%. Approximate: tracking error of at most 8% and either a cash-like fund (volatility of at most 3%) or correlation of at least 0.80 with a vol ratio of at most 1.25. Category stand-in: anything weaker.
- Generated
- 2026-10-10; data through Sep 2026. Reproduce hash of the full extended one-asset portfolio:
41be489c96f9f02b
Historical simulation, not investment advice. Past returns, including spliced proxy returns, do not predict future results.