Portfolio strategy guides
Data-driven backtests of classic portfolios — every number computed from real market history, with the honest trade-offs, not a sales pitch.
Does the 60/40 portfolio still work?
We put the classic stocks-and-bonds portfolio (60% SPY, 40% AGG) through a full backtest — returns, risk-adjusted performance, and every drawdown — to see how it really held up against the S&P 500.
Read the analysis →Ray Dalio's All Weather portfolio, tested against 25 years of markets
Bridgewater's All Weather spreads risk across stocks, long and intermediate Treasuries, gold, and commodities. We backtested it to see whether “built for any climate” holds up in the data.
Read the analysis →Can the Golden Butterfly really match stocks with half the pain?
An equal five-way split of total market, small-cap value, long and short Treasuries, and gold. We ran the numbers to see how the Golden Butterfly's famously smooth ride compares to the S&P 500.
Read the analysis →Is Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio too cautious for its own good?
Equal quarters of stocks, long Treasuries, cash, and gold — one for each economic season. A full backtest of the Permanent Portfolio's returns, risk, and drawdowns against the S&P 500.
Read the analysis →The Bogleheads three-fund portfolio, by the numbers
Total US market, total international, total bond — three funds, the whole world. We backtested the Bogleheads' favorite portfolio to see what that radical simplicity actually delivered.
Read the analysis →Lump sum vs dollar-cost averaging: which one wins?
A data-driven test of investing a windfall all at once (lump sum) versus spreading it over months (dollar-cost averaging), across decades of S&P 500 history — with an interactive calculator you can run on any amount and start date.
Read the analysis →Wealthfront's robo portfolio vs. a plain index fund: is the fee worth it?
A representative build of Wealthfront's Classic portfolio — global stocks with a dividend tilt, corporate bonds, and TIPS — backtested head-to-head against the S&P 500.
Read the analysis →What's really inside Betterment's portfolio — and does it beat the S&P 500?
A representative reconstruction of Betterment's Core portfolio: globally diversified, value-tilted stocks with a small slice of bonds, backtested against the S&P 500.
Read the analysis →Warren Buffett's 90/10 portfolio: brilliant, or too aggressive?
The allocation Buffett left for his wife's trust: 90% S&P 500, 10% short-term bonds. A full backtest of its returns and — crucially — its drawdowns against the market.
Read the analysis →The Coffeehouse portfolio: does slicing stocks seven ways help?
Six equal stock slices tilted toward value and small caps, anchored by 40% bonds. A backtest of Bill Schultheis's Coffeehouse portfolio against the S&P 500.
Read the analysis →Rick Ferri's Core Four: the three-fund portfolio, plus real estate
US total market, total international, REITs, and total bond at 48/24/8/20. A data-driven look at how Rick Ferri's Core Four stacked up against the S&P 500.
Read the analysis →The Couch Potato portfolio: can two funds really be enough?
Half total US stocks, half inflation-protected bonds, rebalanced once a year. We tested Scott Burns's famously lazy portfolio against the S&P 500.
Read the analysis →Owning the whole world: does Meb Faber's GAA portfolio pay off?
The Global Asset Allocation holds ten assets in roughly the proportions the world actually owns them. A full backtest of Faber's “global market portfolio” against the S&P 500.
Read the analysis →The Ivy Portfolio: can you invest like Yale with five ETFs?
Meb Faber's endowment-style Ivy Portfolio spreads across US and foreign stocks, bonds, commodities, and real estate. Here is how the buy-and-hold version performed versus the S&P 500.
Read the analysis →The Larry Portfolio: a little risk in exactly the right place
Larry Swedroe's design puts just 30% in high-return small-value and emerging stocks and 70% in Treasuries. We tested whether that trade delivers stock-like returns with far less risk.
Read the analysis →William Bernstein's No-Brainer portfolio: simple, but does it deliver?
Four equal corners — S&P 500, small caps, international, and bonds. A full backtest of Bernstein's deliberately simple portfolio against the S&P 500 alone.
Read the analysis →David Swensen's portfolio for the rest of us, put to the test
The late Yale CIO's individual-investor allocation — diversified stocks, real estate, Treasuries, and TIPS. Backtested returns, risk, and drawdowns versus the S&P 500.
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