All MarketHeist guides
90 guides in five sets, every number computed from real market history with the same portfolio engine the apps use. Pick a set, or jump straight to a page.
Strategy guides
Classic portfolios, backtested: 60/40, All Weather, Golden Butterfly and more, with the real numbers and the honest trade-offs.
- Can Chris Cole's Dragon Portfolio really survive any market?
- Can the Golden Butterfly really match stocks with half the pain?
- David Swensen's portfolio for the rest of us, put to the test
- Does the 60/40 portfolio still work?
- Is Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio too cautious for its own good?
- Lump sum vs dollar-cost averaging: which one wins?
- Owning the whole world: does Meb Faber's GAA portfolio pay off?
- Ray Dalio's All Weather portfolio, tested against 25 years of markets
- Rick Ferri's Core Four: the three-fund portfolio, plus real estate
- The Bogleheads three-fund portfolio, by the numbers
- The Coffeehouse portfolio: does slicing stocks seven ways help?
- The Couch Potato portfolio: can two funds really be enough?
- The Ivy Portfolio: can you invest like Yale with five ETFs?
- The Larry Portfolio: a little risk in exactly the right place
- Warren Buffett's 90/10 portfolio: brilliant, or too aggressive?
- Wealthfront's robo portfolio vs. a plain index fund: is the fee worth it?
- What's really inside Betterment's portfolio — and does it beat the S&P 500?
- William Bernstein's No-Brainer portfolio: simple, but does it deliver?
Fund history
How far back each ETF can really be tested, which older fund stands in for it, and how closely that stand-in tracked.
Trend filters
What a 10-month trend filter does to each classic portfolio: drawdowns, whipsaws and 2022.
Risk breakdowns
What each portfolio is really betting on: every holding's share of the risk next to its share of the money.
Rule robustness
Do classic trading rules survive other settings? Each famous setting is stress-tested against its neighbours, other costs and held-out years.
- 200-day moving average on SPY: does 150 or 250 work as well?
- 200-day moving average on QQQ: does 150 or 250 work as well?
- 200-day moving average on TLT: does 150 or 250 work as well?
- 200-day moving average on GLD: does 150 or 250 work as well?
- 200-day moving average on EFA: does 150 or 250 work as well?
- Golden cross (50/200) on SPY: robust or curve-fit?
- Golden cross (50/200) on QQQ: robust or curve-fit?
- Golden cross (50/200) on TLT: robust or curve-fit?
- Golden cross (50/200) on GLD: robust or curve-fit?
- Golden cross (50/200) on EFA: robust or curve-fit?
- 12/26 EMA crossover (MACD) on five ETFs: robust or curve-fit?
- RSI 30/70 on five ETFs: does the classic setting hold up?