What did VNQ do before 2004?

Before Oct 2004 the series is VGSIX's. Those 8.3 years (Jun 1996–Sep 2004) show 13.1% a year with 13.9% annualized volatility and a worst drawdown of -22.1% (Dec 1997–Nov 1999). In major S&P 500 declines: 1998 LTCM sell-off, -15.5% versus -15.3% for the S&P 500 (VGSIX); 2000–02 dot-com bear, 24.3% versus -44.7% for the S&P 500 (VGSIX). The full extended history's worst drawdown is -68.3% (Jan 2007–Feb 2009).

How closely does VGSIX track VNQ?

Over 264 overlapping months (Oct 2004–Sep 2026), VGSIX had a correlation of 0.999 with VNQ, a tracking error of 0.8% a year and a tracking difference of -0.10% a year (grade: close).

How far back can you test VNQ? To Jun 1996, with VGSIX

Computed by the MarketHeist portfolio engine · Published 2026-10-10 · Updated 2026-10-10 · Data through Sep 2026

VNQ (US REITs) has its own monthly data from Oct 2004. Spliced with VGSIX it reaches back to Jun 1996, which adds 8.3 years (27% of the extended history comes from proxies). Data through Sep 2026.

What you'd have missed

VNQ's own data starts in Oct 2004; VGSIX extends it to Jun 1996, 8.3 more years.
Its own history misses the 1998 LTCM sell-off and the 2000–02 dot-com bear.
Its worst drawdown, -68.3% (Jan 2007–Feb 2009), is already inside the ETF's own history; the extension does not change the worst case.

How the history is built

VNQ (ETF) Oct 2004 → now

VGSIX (Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund, mutual fund) used Jun 1996 → Sep 2004; its own data runs Jun 1996 → now

Jun 1996Sep 2026

Solid bars are the months each fund contributes to the spliced series; the outline shows how far a proxy's own data runs. Each month uses the youngest fund that has data for it; returns are spliced, not prices (dividends reinvested via adjusted close).

How well each proxy tracked VNQ

Proxy	Kind	Months contributed	Overlap with VNQ	Correlation	Tracking error	Tracking difference	Beta	Vol ratio	Grade
VGSIXVanguard Real Estate Index Fund	mutual fund	Jun 1996–Sep 2004100 months	Oct 2004–Sep 2026264 months	0.999	0.75%	-0.10%	1.00	1.00	Close

Statistics are over the months a proxy and VNQ both have data. Tracking error is annualized; tracking difference is the annualized geometric gap (positive: the proxy earned more). Page grade: close, the worst grade among the proxies that contribute months.

VNQ's own history versus the extended history

	The ETF's own history	Proxy years only	Full extended history
Window	Oct 2004 – Sep 202622.0 years	Jun 1996 – Sep 20048.3 years	Jun 1996 – Sep 202630.3 years
Growth of $10,000	$46,003	$27,968	$128,664
CAGR	7.2%	13.1%	8.8%
Annualized volatility	21.5%	13.9%	19.7%
Sharpe ratio (risk-free 0%)	0.43	0.96	0.53
Max drawdown	-68.3%Jan 2007 → Feb 2009; recovered Jun 2012	-22.1%Dec 1997 → Nov 1999; recovered Dec 2000	-68.3%Jan 2007 → Feb 2009; recovered Jun 2012
Worst complete calendar year	2008 (-37.0%)	1998 (-16.3%)	2008 (-37.0%)
Best complete calendar year	2021 (40.5%)	2003 (35.6%)	2021 (40.5%)
Longest underwater (months)	64	35	64
Major declines covered	3	2	5

The columns cover different years, so a higher or lower CAGR is not a verdict on the fund; the point is which market regimes each window includes. Growth of $10,000 is the same one-asset, buy-and-hold calculation the live portfolio app makes.

Growth of $10,000

Log scale, so the early decades are not flattened. Grey is the proxy period; blue is VNQ's own data. Dashed lines mark where each fund's returns begin.

Drawdowns

Decline from the prior peak at month-end, the "underwater" curve.

How VNQ did in each major US stock-market decline since 1985

Decline	S&P 500	VNQ over the same months	Source of those months
1987 crashSep 1987–Nov 1987	-29.8%	not covered	before available data
1998 LTCM sell-offJul 1998–Aug 1998	-15.3%	-15.5%	VGSIX
2000–02 dot-com bearSep 2000–Sep 2002	-44.7%	24.3%	VGSIX
2007–09 financial crisisNov 2007–Feb 2009	-50.8%	-64.6%	ETF
2020 COVID crashJan 2020–Mar 2020	-19.4%	-24.1%	ETF
2022 inflation bearJan 2022–Sep 2022	-23.9%	-29.3%	ETF

The decline windows are computed, not chosen: every peak-to-trough fall of at least 15% (month-end) in the S&P 500 series since 1985. The fund's figure compounds its monthly returns from the month after the S&P 500's peak through the trough.

VNQ's own five deepest drawdowns (extended history)

Peak	Trough	Depth	Recovery	Source of the decline months
Jan 2007	Feb 2009	-68.3%	Jun 2012	ETF
Dec 2021	Oct 2023	-32.8%	Jul 2026	ETF
Jan 2020	Mar 2020	-25.1%	Mar 2021	ETF
Dec 1997	Nov 1999	-22.1%	Dec 2000	VGSIX
Jul 2016	Feb 2018	-14.9%	Jan 2019	ETF

This covers declines the equity windows miss, such as the bond bear markets of 1994 and 2022.

Caveats

Before Oct 2004 the returns are VGSIX's, after that fund's own costs; the measured gap while both existed is -0.10% a year.
Monthly month-end data: intra-month drawdowns were deeper than shown.
Dividends are reinvested; no taxes or trading costs are modeled.
Our data source's series for VGSIX begins Jun 1996; the fund itself may be older.

Test it yourself

Open VNQ as a one-asset portfolio in the live app, where every number recomputes from fresh data.

Open VNQ (100%) in the portfolio builder →

Used in portfolios: Ivy Portfolio, Global Asset Allocation, Yale Endowment (Swensen), Core Four, Coffeehouse

Used in strategies: Global Tactical Asset Allocation (Aggressive), Adaptive Asset Allocation

Used in guides: Coffeehouse, Core Four, Global Asset Allocation, Ivy Portfolio, Yale (Swensen)

All fund histories →

Frequently asked questions

How far back does VNQ data go?: VNQ (US REITs) has its own monthly data from Oct 2004. Spliced with VGSIX it reaches back to Jun 1996, which adds 8.3 years (27% of the extended history comes from proxies). Data through Sep 2026.
What did VNQ do before 2004?: Before Oct 2004 the series is VGSIX's. Those 8.3 years (Jun 1996–Sep 2004) show 13.1% a year with 13.9% annualized volatility and a worst drawdown of -22.1% (Dec 1997–Nov 1999). In major S&P 500 declines: 1998 LTCM sell-off, -15.5% versus -15.3% for the S&P 500 (VGSIX); 2000–02 dot-com bear, 24.3% versus -44.7% for the S&P 500 (VGSIX). The full extended history's worst drawdown is -68.3% (Jan 2007–Feb 2009).
How closely does VGSIX track VNQ?: Over 264 overlapping months (Oct 2004–Sep 2026), VGSIX had a correlation of 0.999 with VNQ, a tracking error of 0.8% a year and a tracking difference of -0.10% a year (grade: close).

Methodology

Source: Yahoo Finance via MarketHeist, monthly adjusted close (dividends reinvested). Months run to the last complete calendar month.
Splice rule: Each month uses the youngest fund that has data for it; returns are spliced, not prices (dividends reinvested via adjusted close).
Numbers: Computed by the MarketHeist portfolio engine as a one-asset, 100% buy-and-hold portfolio, the same calculation the live app makes. Sharpe uses a risk-free rate of 0%. Drawdowns are month-end.
Correlation: Pearson correlation of monthly returns over the months both funds have.
Tracking error: Standard deviation of the monthly return differences (proxy minus VNQ) times the square root of 12.
Tracking difference: Annualized geometric return of the proxy minus that of VNQ over the overlap. Positive means the proxy earned more.
Beta and vol ratio: Beta is the covariance of the proxy with VNQ divided by the variance of VNQ; vol ratio is the proxy's standard deviation divided by VNQ's.
Grades: Close: correlation of at least 0.95 and tracking error of at most 3%. Approximate: tracking error of at most 8% and either a cash-like fund (volatility of at most 3%) or correlation of at least 0.80 with a vol ratio of at most 1.25. Category stand-in: anything weaker.
Generated: 2026-10-10; data through Sep 2026. Reproduce hash of the full extended one-asset portfolio: 10f10775b5a2c6b8

Historical simulation, not investment advice. Past returns, including spliced proxy returns, do not predict future results.