How far back can you test LQD? To Nov 1993, with VFICX
What you'd have missed
- LQD's own data starts in Aug 2002; VFICX extends it to Nov 1993, 8.8 more years.
- Its own history misses the 1998 LTCM sell-off and only partly covers the 2000–02 dot-com bear.
- Its worst drawdown, -23.3% (Dec 2020–Oct 2022), is already inside the ETF's own history; the extension does not change the worst case.
How the history is built
Solid bars are the months each fund contributes to the spliced series; the outline shows how far a proxy's own data runs. Each month uses the youngest fund that has data for it; returns are spliced, not prices (dividends reinvested via adjusted close).
How well each proxy tracked LQD
| Proxy | Kind | Months contributed | Overlap with LQD | Correlation | Tracking error | Tracking difference | Beta | Vol ratio | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VFICXVanguard Intermediate-Term Investment-Grade Fund | mutual fund | Nov 1993–Jul 2002105 months | Aug 2002–Sep 2026290 months | 0.917 | 3.61% | -0.18% | 0.63 | 0.69 | Approximate |
Statistics are over the months a proxy and LQD both have data. Tracking error is annualized; tracking difference is the annualized geometric gap (positive: the proxy earned more). Page grade: approximate, the worst grade among the proxies that contribute months.
LQD's own history versus the extended history
| The ETF's own history | Proxy years only | Full extended history | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Window | Aug 2002 – Sep 202624.2 years | Nov 1993 – Jul 20028.8 years | Nov 1993 – Sep 202632.9 years |
| Growth of $10,000 | $27,917 | $17,496 | $48,844 |
| CAGR | 4.3% | 6.6% | 4.9% |
| Annualized volatility | 7.9% | 4.5% | 7.2% |
| Sharpe ratio (risk-free 0%) | 0.58 | 1.44 | 0.71 |
| Max drawdown | -23.3%Dec 2020 → Oct 2022; not yet recovered | -6.2%Jan 1994 → Nov 1994; recovered Apr 1995 | -23.3%Dec 2020 → Oct 2022; not yet recovered |
| Worst complete calendar year | 2022 (-17.9%) | 1994 (-4.2%) | 2022 (-17.9%) |
| Best complete calendar year | 2019 (17.4%) | 1995 (21.5%) | 1995 (21.5%) |
| Longest underwater (months) | 69 | 16 | 69 |
| Major declines covered | 3 + 1 partly | 1 + 1 partly | 5 |
The columns cover different years, so a higher or lower CAGR is not a verdict on the fund; the point is which market regimes each window includes. Growth of $10,000 is the same one-asset, buy-and-hold calculation the live portfolio app makes.
Growth of $10,000
Drawdowns
How LQD did in each major US stock-market decline since 1985
| Decline | S&P 500 | LQD over the same months | Source of those months |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1987 crashSep 1987–Nov 1987 | -29.8% | not covered | before available data |
| 1998 LTCM sell-offJul 1998–Aug 1998 | -15.3% | 1.5% | VFICX |
| 2000–02 dot-com bearSep 2000–Sep 2002 | -44.7% | 26.4% | partly VFICX |
| 2007–09 financial crisisNov 2007–Feb 2009 | -50.8% | -4.5% | ETF |
| 2020 COVID crashJan 2020–Mar 2020 | -19.4% | -3.0% | ETF |
| 2022 inflation bearJan 2022–Sep 2022 | -23.9% | -21.2% | ETF |
The decline windows are computed, not chosen: every peak-to-trough fall of at least 15% (month-end) in the S&P 500 series since 1985. The fund's figure compounds its monthly returns from the month after the S&P 500's peak through the trough.
LQD's own five deepest drawdowns (extended history)
| Peak | Trough | Depth | Recovery | Source of the decline months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2020 | Oct 2022 | -23.3% | not yet recovered | ETF |
| Jan 2008 | Oct 2008 | -15.1% | Jun 2009 | ETF |
| Apr 2013 | Jun 2013 | -6.4% | Apr 2014 | ETF |
| Feb 2020 | Mar 2020 | -6.3% | May 2020 | ETF |
| Jan 1994 | Nov 1994 | -6.2% | Apr 1995 | VFICX |
This covers declines the equity windows miss, such as the bond bear markets of 1994 and 2022.
Caveats
- Before Aug 2002 the returns are VFICX's, after that fund's own costs; the measured gap while both existed is -0.18% a year.
- Monthly month-end data: intra-month drawdowns were deeper than shown.
- Dividends are reinvested; no taxes or trading costs are modeled.
- Our data source's series for VFICX begins Nov 1993; the fund itself may be older.
Test it yourself
Open LQD as a one-asset portfolio in the live app, where every number recomputes from fresh data.
Open LQD (100%) in the portfolio builder →Used in portfolios: Global Asset Allocation, Wealthfront Classic
Used in guides: Global Asset Allocation, Wealthfront Classic
Frequently asked questions
- How far back does LQD data go?
- LQD (Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds) has its own monthly data from Aug 2002. Spliced with VFICX it reaches back to Nov 1993, which adds 8.8 years (27% of the extended history comes from proxies). Data through Sep 2026.
- What did LQD do before 2002?
- Before Aug 2002 the series is VFICX's. Those 8.8 years (Nov 1993–Jul 2002) show 6.6% a year with 4.5% annualized volatility and a worst drawdown of -6.2% (Jan 1994–Nov 1994). In major S&P 500 declines: 1998 LTCM sell-off, 1.5% versus -15.3% for the S&P 500 (VFICX); 2000–02 dot-com bear, 26.4% versus -44.7% for the S&P 500 (partly VFICX). The full extended history's worst drawdown is -23.3% (Dec 2020–Oct 2022).
- How closely does VFICX track LQD?
- Over 290 overlapping months (Aug 2002–Sep 2026), VFICX had a correlation of 0.917 with LQD, a tracking error of 3.6% a year and a tracking difference of -0.18% a year (grade: approximate).
Methodology
- Source
- Yahoo Finance via MarketHeist, monthly adjusted close (dividends reinvested). Months run to the last complete calendar month.
- Splice rule
- Each month uses the youngest fund that has data for it; returns are spliced, not prices (dividends reinvested via adjusted close).
- Numbers
- Computed by the MarketHeist portfolio engine as a one-asset, 100% buy-and-hold portfolio, the same calculation the live app makes. Sharpe uses a risk-free rate of 0%. Drawdowns are month-end.
- Correlation
- Pearson correlation of monthly returns over the months both funds have.
- Tracking error
- Standard deviation of the monthly return differences (proxy minus LQD) times the square root of 12.
- Tracking difference
- Annualized geometric return of the proxy minus that of LQD over the overlap. Positive means the proxy earned more.
- Beta and vol ratio
- Beta is the covariance of the proxy with LQD divided by the variance of LQD; vol ratio is the proxy's standard deviation divided by LQD's.
- Grades
- Close: correlation of at least 0.95 and tracking error of at most 3%. Approximate: tracking error of at most 8% and either a cash-like fund (volatility of at most 3%) or correlation of at least 0.80 with a vol ratio of at most 1.25. Category stand-in: anything weaker.
- Generated
- 2026-10-10; data through Sep 2026. Reproduce hash of the full extended one-asset portfolio:
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Historical simulation, not investment advice. Past returns, including spliced proxy returns, do not predict future results.