What did SHY do before 2002?

Before Aug 2002 the series is VFISX's. Those 10.8 years (Nov 1991–Jul 2002) show 6.3% a year with 2.3% annualized volatility and a worst drawdown of -2.4% (Jan 1994–Apr 1994). In major S&P 500 declines: 1998 LTCM sell-off, 2.0% versus -15.3% for the S&P 500 (VFISX); 2000–02 dot-com bear, 19.2% versus -44.7% for the S&P 500 (partly VFISX). The full extended history's worst drawdown is -5.4% (May 2021–Oct 2022).

How closely does VFISX track SHY?

Over 290 overlapping months (Aug 2002–Sep 2026), VFISX had a correlation of 0.962 with SHY, a tracking error of 0.5% a year and a tracking difference of +0.15% a year (grade: close).

How far back can you test SHY? To Nov 1991, with VFISX

Computed by the MarketHeist portfolio engine · Published 2026-10-10 · Updated 2026-10-10 · Data through Sep 2026

SHY (Short-Term Treasuries (1-3y)) has its own monthly data from Aug 2002. Spliced with VFISX it reaches back to Nov 1991, which adds 10.8 years (31% of the extended history comes from proxies). Data through Sep 2026.

What you'd have missed

SHY's own data starts in Aug 2002; VFISX extends it to Nov 1991, 10.8 more years.
Its own history misses the 1998 LTCM sell-off and only partly covers the 2000–02 dot-com bear.
Its worst drawdown, -5.4% (May 2021–Oct 2022), is already inside the ETF's own history; the extension does not change the worst case.
BIL is extended with the same VFISX.

How the history is built

SHY (ETF) Aug 2002 → now

VFISX (Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Fund, mutual fund) used Nov 1991 → Jul 2002; its own data runs Nov 1991 → now

Nov 1991Sep 2026

Solid bars are the months each fund contributes to the spliced series; the outline shows how far a proxy's own data runs. Each month uses the youngest fund that has data for it; returns are spliced, not prices (dividends reinvested via adjusted close).

How well each proxy tracked SHY

Proxy	Kind	Months contributed	Overlap with SHY	Correlation	Tracking error	Tracking difference	Beta	Vol ratio	Grade
VFISXVanguard Short-Term Treasury Fund	mutual fund	Nov 1991–Jul 2002129 months	Aug 2002–Sep 2026290 months	0.962	0.55%	+0.15%	1.16	1.21	Close

Statistics are over the months a proxy and SHY both have data. Tracking error is annualized; tracking difference is the annualized geometric gap (positive: the proxy earned more). Page grade: close, the worst grade among the proxies that contribute months.

SHY's own history versus the extended history

	The ETF's own history	Proxy years only	Full extended history
Window	Aug 2002 – Sep 202624.2 years	Nov 1991 – Jul 200210.8 years	Nov 1991 – Sep 202634.9 years
Growth of $10,000	$15,913	$19,238	$30,612
CAGR	1.9%	6.3%	3.3%
Annualized volatility	1.5%	2.3%	1.9%
Sharpe ratio (risk-free 0%)	1.29	2.71	1.74
Max drawdown	-5.4%May 2021 → Oct 2022; recovered Jun 2024	-2.4%Jan 1994 → Apr 1994; recovered Jan 1995	-5.4%May 2021 → Oct 2022; recovered Jun 2024
Worst complete calendar year	2022 (-3.9%)	1994 (-0.6%)	2022 (-3.9%)
Best complete calendar year	2007 (7.4%)	1995 (12.1%)	1995 (12.1%)
Longest underwater (months)	36	11	36
Major declines covered	3 + 1 partly	1 + 1 partly	5

The columns cover different years, so a higher or lower CAGR is not a verdict on the fund; the point is which market regimes each window includes. Growth of $10,000 is the same one-asset, buy-and-hold calculation the live portfolio app makes.

Growth of $10,000

Log scale, so the early decades are not flattened. Grey is the proxy period; blue is SHY's own data. Dashed lines mark where each fund's returns begin.

Drawdowns

Decline from the prior peak at month-end, the "underwater" curve.

How SHY did in each major US stock-market decline since 1985

Decline	S&P 500	SHY over the same months	Source of those months
1987 crashSep 1987–Nov 1987	-29.8%	not covered	before available data
1998 LTCM sell-offJul 1998–Aug 1998	-15.3%	2.0%	VFISX
2000–02 dot-com bearSep 2000–Sep 2002	-44.7%	19.2%	partly VFISX
2007–09 financial crisisNov 2007–Feb 2009	-50.8%	8.2%	ETF
2020 COVID crashJan 2020–Mar 2020	-19.4%	2.7%	ETF
2022 inflation bearJan 2022–Sep 2022	-23.9%	-4.5%	ETF

The decline windows are computed, not chosen: every peak-to-trough fall of at least 15% (month-end) in the S&P 500 series since 1985. The fund's figure compounds its monthly returns from the month after the S&P 500's peak through the trough.

SHY's own five deepest drawdowns (extended history)

Peak	Trough	Depth	Recovery	Source of the decline months
May 2021	Oct 2022	-5.4%	Jun 2024	ETF
Jan 1994	Apr 1994	-2.4%	Jan 1995	VFISX
Sep 1992	Nov 1992	-1.6%	Jan 1993	VFISX
Mar 2008	May 2008	-1.2%	Sep 2008	ETF
Jan 1996	Apr 1996	-1.1%	Jul 1996	VFISX

This covers declines the equity windows miss, such as the bond bear markets of 1994 and 2022.

Caveats

Before Aug 2002 the returns are VFISX's, after that fund's own costs; the measured gap while both existed is +0.15% a year.
Monthly month-end data: intra-month drawdowns were deeper than shown.
Dividends are reinvested; no taxes or trading costs are modeled.
Our data source's series for VFISX begins Nov 1991; the fund itself may be older.

Test it yourself

Open SHY as a one-asset portfolio in the live app, where every number recomputes from fresh data.

Open SHY (100%) in the portfolio builder →

Used in portfolios: Golden Butterfly

Used in guides: Golden Butterfly

All fund histories →

Frequently asked questions

How far back does SHY data go?: SHY (Short-Term Treasuries (1-3y)) has its own monthly data from Aug 2002. Spliced with VFISX it reaches back to Nov 1991, which adds 10.8 years (31% of the extended history comes from proxies). Data through Sep 2026.
What did SHY do before 2002?: Before Aug 2002 the series is VFISX's. Those 10.8 years (Nov 1991–Jul 2002) show 6.3% a year with 2.3% annualized volatility and a worst drawdown of -2.4% (Jan 1994–Apr 1994). In major S&P 500 declines: 1998 LTCM sell-off, 2.0% versus -15.3% for the S&P 500 (VFISX); 2000–02 dot-com bear, 19.2% versus -44.7% for the S&P 500 (partly VFISX). The full extended history's worst drawdown is -5.4% (May 2021–Oct 2022).
How closely does VFISX track SHY?: Over 290 overlapping months (Aug 2002–Sep 2026), VFISX had a correlation of 0.962 with SHY, a tracking error of 0.5% a year and a tracking difference of +0.15% a year (grade: close).

Methodology

Source: Yahoo Finance via MarketHeist, monthly adjusted close (dividends reinvested). Months run to the last complete calendar month.
Splice rule: Each month uses the youngest fund that has data for it; returns are spliced, not prices (dividends reinvested via adjusted close).
Numbers: Computed by the MarketHeist portfolio engine as a one-asset, 100% buy-and-hold portfolio, the same calculation the live app makes. Sharpe uses a risk-free rate of 0%. Drawdowns are month-end.
Correlation: Pearson correlation of monthly returns over the months both funds have.
Tracking error: Standard deviation of the monthly return differences (proxy minus SHY) times the square root of 12.
Tracking difference: Annualized geometric return of the proxy minus that of SHY over the overlap. Positive means the proxy earned more.
Beta and vol ratio: Beta is the covariance of the proxy with SHY divided by the variance of SHY; vol ratio is the proxy's standard deviation divided by SHY's.
Grades: Close: correlation of at least 0.95 and tracking error of at most 3%. Approximate: tracking error of at most 8% and either a cash-like fund (volatility of at most 3%) or correlation of at least 0.80 with a vol ratio of at most 1.25. Category stand-in: anything weaker.
Generated: 2026-10-10; data through Sep 2026. Reproduce hash of the full extended one-asset portfolio: 995d600d600998e9

Historical simulation, not investment advice. Past returns, including spliced proxy returns, do not predict future results.