What did VTI do before 2001?

Before Jul 2001 the series is VTSMX's. Those 9.2 years (May 1992–Jun 2001) show 13.8% a year with 14.2% annualized volatility and a worst drawdown of -24.9% (Aug 2000–Mar 2001). In major S&P 500 declines: 1998 LTCM sell-off, -17.6% versus -15.3% for the S&P 500 (VTSMX); 2000–02 dot-com bear, -44.3% versus -44.7% for the S&P 500 (partly VTSMX). The full extended history's worst drawdown is -50.8% (Oct 2007–Feb 2009).

How closely does VTSMX track VTI?

Over 303 overlapping months (Jul 2001–Sep 2026), VTSMX had a correlation of 0.999 with VTI, a tracking error of 0.5% a year and a tracking difference of -0.11% a year (grade: close).

How far back can you test VTI? To May 1992, with VTSMX

Computed by the MarketHeist portfolio engine · Published 2026-10-10 · Updated 2026-10-10 · Data through Sep 2026

VTI (US Total Stock Market) has its own monthly data from Jul 2001. Spliced with VTSMX it reaches back to May 1992, which adds 9.2 years (27% of the extended history comes from proxies). Data through Sep 2026.

What you'd have missed

VTI's own data starts in Jul 2001; VTSMX extends it to May 1992, 9.2 more years.
Its own history misses the 1998 LTCM sell-off and only partly covers the 2000–02 dot-com bear.
Its worst drawdown, -50.8% (Oct 2007–Feb 2009), is already inside the ETF's own history; the extension does not change the worst case.

How the history is built

VTI (ETF) Jul 2001 → now

VTSMX (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund, mutual fund) used May 1992 → Jun 2001; its own data runs May 1992 → now

May 1992Sep 2026

Solid bars are the months each fund contributes to the spliced series; the outline shows how far a proxy's own data runs. Each month uses the youngest fund that has data for it; returns are spliced, not prices (dividends reinvested via adjusted close).

How well each proxy tracked VTI

Proxy	Kind	Months contributed	Overlap with VTI	Correlation	Tracking error	Tracking difference	Beta	Vol ratio	Grade
VTSMXVanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund	mutual fund	May 1992–Jun 2001110 months	Jul 2001–Sep 2026303 months	0.999	0.54%	-0.11%	1.00	1.00	Close

Statistics are over the months a proxy and VTI both have data. Tracking error is annualized; tracking difference is the annualized geometric gap (positive: the proxy earned more). Page grade: close, the worst grade among the proxies that contribute months.

VTI's own history versus the extended history

	The ETF's own history	Proxy years only	Full extended history
Window	Jul 2001 – Sep 202625.3 years	May 1992 – Jun 20019.2 years	May 1992 – Sep 202634.4 years
Growth of $10,000	$102,959	$32,812	$337,834
CAGR	9.7%	13.8%	10.8%
Annualized volatility	15.3%	14.2%	15.0%
Sharpe ratio (risk-free 0%)	0.68	0.99	0.76
Max drawdown	-50.8%Oct 2007 → Feb 2009; recovered Mar 2012	-24.9%Aug 2000 → Mar 2001; not recovered within this window	-50.8%Oct 2007 → Feb 2009; recovered Mar 2012
Worst complete calendar year	2008 (-37.0%)	2000 (-10.6%)	2008 (-37.0%)
Best complete calendar year	2013 (33.4%)	1995 (35.0%)	1995 (35.0%)
Longest underwater (months)	52	12	67
Major declines covered	3 + 1 partly	1 + 1 partly	5

The columns cover different years, so a higher or lower CAGR is not a verdict on the fund; the point is which market regimes each window includes. Growth of $10,000 is the same one-asset, buy-and-hold calculation the live portfolio app makes.

Growth of $10,000

Log scale, so the early decades are not flattened. Grey is the proxy period; blue is VTI's own data. Dashed lines mark where each fund's returns begin.

Drawdowns

Decline from the prior peak at month-end, the "underwater" curve.

How VTI did in each major US stock-market decline since 1985

Decline	S&P 500	VTI over the same months	Source of those months
1987 crashSep 1987–Nov 1987	-29.8%	not covered	before available data
1998 LTCM sell-offJul 1998–Aug 1998	-15.3%	-17.6%	VTSMX
2000–02 dot-com bearSep 2000–Sep 2002	-44.7%	-44.3%	partly VTSMX
2007–09 financial crisisNov 2007–Feb 2009	-50.8%	-50.8%	ETF
2020 COVID crashJan 2020–Mar 2020	-19.4%	-20.8%	ETF
2022 inflation bearJan 2022–Sep 2022	-23.9%	-24.8%	ETF

The decline windows are computed, not chosen: every peak-to-trough fall of at least 15% (month-end) in the S&P 500 series since 1985. The fund's figure compounds its monthly returns from the month after the S&P 500's peak through the trough.

VTI's own five deepest drawdowns (extended history)

Peak	Trough	Depth	Recovery	Source of the decline months
Oct 2007	Feb 2009	-50.8%	Mar 2012	ETF
Aug 2000	Sep 2002	-44.3%	Apr 2006	partly VTSMX
Dec 2021	Sep 2022	-24.8%	Dec 2023	ETF
Dec 2019	Mar 2020	-20.8%	Jul 2020	ETF
Jun 1998	Aug 1998	-17.6%	Nov 1998	VTSMX

This covers declines the equity windows miss, such as the bond bear markets of 1994 and 2022.

Caveats

Before Jul 2001 the returns are VTSMX's, after that fund's own costs; the measured gap while both existed is -0.11% a year.
Monthly month-end data: intra-month drawdowns were deeper than shown.
Dividends are reinvested; no taxes or trading costs are modeled.
Our data source's series for VTSMX begins May 1992; the fund itself may be older.

Test it yourself

Open VTI as a one-asset portfolio in the live app, where every number recomputes from fresh data.

Open VTI (100%) in the portfolio builder →

Used in portfolios: Golden Butterfly, All Weather, Permanent Portfolio, Dragon Portfolio, Ivy Portfolio, Bogleheads Three-Fund, Wealthfront Classic, Betterment Core, Yale Endowment (Swensen), Core Four, Couch Potato

Used in strategies: Dual Momentum (GEM), Trend Timing (10-month MA), Risk Parity (inverse-vol), Global Tactical Asset Allocation (Aggressive), Adaptive Asset Allocation

Used in guides: All Weather, Betterment Core, Bogleheads 3-Fund, Core Four, Couch Potato, Dragon, Golden Butterfly, Ivy Portfolio, Permanent, Wealthfront Classic, Yale (Swensen)

All fund histories →

Frequently asked questions

How far back does VTI data go?: VTI (US Total Stock Market) has its own monthly data from Jul 2001. Spliced with VTSMX it reaches back to May 1992, which adds 9.2 years (27% of the extended history comes from proxies). Data through Sep 2026.
What did VTI do before 2001?: Before Jul 2001 the series is VTSMX's. Those 9.2 years (May 1992–Jun 2001) show 13.8% a year with 14.2% annualized volatility and a worst drawdown of -24.9% (Aug 2000–Mar 2001). In major S&P 500 declines: 1998 LTCM sell-off, -17.6% versus -15.3% for the S&P 500 (VTSMX); 2000–02 dot-com bear, -44.3% versus -44.7% for the S&P 500 (partly VTSMX). The full extended history's worst drawdown is -50.8% (Oct 2007–Feb 2009).
How closely does VTSMX track VTI?: Over 303 overlapping months (Jul 2001–Sep 2026), VTSMX had a correlation of 0.999 with VTI, a tracking error of 0.5% a year and a tracking difference of -0.11% a year (grade: close).

Methodology

Source: Yahoo Finance via MarketHeist, monthly adjusted close (dividends reinvested). Months run to the last complete calendar month.
Splice rule: Each month uses the youngest fund that has data for it; returns are spliced, not prices (dividends reinvested via adjusted close).
Numbers: Computed by the MarketHeist portfolio engine as a one-asset, 100% buy-and-hold portfolio, the same calculation the live app makes. Sharpe uses a risk-free rate of 0%. Drawdowns are month-end.
Correlation: Pearson correlation of monthly returns over the months both funds have.
Tracking error: Standard deviation of the monthly return differences (proxy minus VTI) times the square root of 12.
Tracking difference: Annualized geometric return of the proxy minus that of VTI over the overlap. Positive means the proxy earned more.
Beta and vol ratio: Beta is the covariance of the proxy with VTI divided by the variance of VTI; vol ratio is the proxy's standard deviation divided by VTI's.
Grades: Close: correlation of at least 0.95 and tracking error of at most 3%. Approximate: tracking error of at most 8% and either a cash-like fund (volatility of at most 3%) or correlation of at least 0.80 with a vol ratio of at most 1.25. Category stand-in: anything weaker.
Generated: 2026-10-10; data through Sep 2026. Reproduce hash of the full extended one-asset portfolio: 63d31d82aa37529a

Historical simulation, not investment advice. Past returns, including spliced proxy returns, do not predict future results.