What did SPY do before 1993?

Before Feb 1993 the series is VFINX's. Those 8.0 years (Feb 1985–Jan 1993) show 13.3% a year with 16.9% annualized volatility and a worst drawdown of -29.8% (Aug 1987–Nov 1987). In major S&P 500 declines: 1987 crash, -29.8% versus -29.8% for the S&P 500 (VFINX). The full extended history's worst drawdown is -50.8% (Oct 2007–Feb 2009).

How closely does VFINX track SPY?

Over 404 overlapping months (Feb 1993–Sep 2026), VFINX had a correlation of 0.998 with SPY, a tracking error of 0.8% a year and a tracking difference of 0.00% a year (grade: close).

How far back can you test SPY? To Feb 1985, with VFINX

Computed by the MarketHeist portfolio engine · Published 2026-10-10 · Updated 2026-10-10 · Data through Sep 2026

SPY (S&P 500) has its own monthly data from Feb 1993. Spliced with VFINX it reaches back to Feb 1985, which adds 8.0 years (19% of the extended history comes from proxies). Data through Sep 2026.

What you'd have missed

SPY's own data starts in Feb 1993; VFINX extends it to Feb 1985, 8.0 more years.
Its own history misses the 1987 crash.
Its worst drawdown, -50.8% (Oct 2007–Feb 2009), is already inside the ETF's own history; the extension does not change the worst case.
VV is extended with the same VFINX.

How the history is built

SPY (ETF) Feb 1993 → now

VFINX (Vanguard 500 Index Fund, mutual fund) used Feb 1985 → Jan 1993; its own data runs Feb 1985 → now

Feb 1985Sep 2026

Solid bars are the months each fund contributes to the spliced series; the outline shows how far a proxy's own data runs. Each month uses the youngest fund that has data for it; returns are spliced, not prices (dividends reinvested via adjusted close).

How well each proxy tracked SPY

Proxy	Kind	Months contributed	Overlap with SPY	Correlation	Tracking error	Tracking difference	Beta	Vol ratio	Grade
VFINXVanguard 500 Index Fund	mutual fund	Feb 1985–Jan 199396 months	Feb 1993–Sep 2026404 months	0.998	0.84%	0.00%	1.00	1.00	Close

Statistics are over the months a proxy and SPY both have data. Tracking error is annualized; tracking difference is the annualized geometric gap (positive: the proxy earned more). Page grade: close, the worst grade among the proxies that contribute months.

SPY's own history versus the extended history

	The ETF's own history	Proxy years only	Full extended history
Window	Feb 1993 – Sep 202633.7 years	Feb 1985 – Jan 19938.0 years	Feb 1985 – Sep 202641.7 years
Growth of $10,000	$317,055	$27,155	$860,978
CAGR	10.8%	13.3%	11.3%
Annualized volatility	14.7%	16.9%	15.1%
Sharpe ratio (risk-free 0%)	0.77	0.83	0.79
Max drawdown	-50.8%Oct 2007 → Feb 2009; recovered Mar 2012	-29.8%Aug 1987 → Nov 1987; recovered May 1989	-50.8%Oct 2007 → Feb 2009; recovered Mar 2012
Worst complete calendar year	2008 (-36.8%)	1990 (-3.3%)	2008 (-36.8%)
Best complete calendar year	1995 (38.0%)	1989 (31.4%)	1995 (38.0%)
Longest underwater (months)	74	20	74
Major declines covered	5	1	6

The columns cover different years, so a higher or lower CAGR is not a verdict on the fund; the point is which market regimes each window includes. Growth of $10,000 is the same one-asset, buy-and-hold calculation the live portfolio app makes.

Growth of $10,000

Log scale, so the early decades are not flattened. Grey is the proxy period; blue is SPY's own data. Dashed lines mark where each fund's returns begin.

Drawdowns

Decline from the prior peak at month-end, the "underwater" curve.

How SPY did in each major US stock-market decline since 1985

Decline	S&P 500	SPY over the same months	Source of those months
1987 crashSep 1987–Nov 1987	-29.8%	-29.8%	VFINX
1998 LTCM sell-offJul 1998–Aug 1998	-15.3%	-15.3%	ETF
2000–02 dot-com bearSep 2000–Sep 2002	-44.7%	-44.7%	ETF
2007–09 financial crisisNov 2007–Feb 2009	-50.8%	-50.8%	ETF
2020 COVID crashJan 2020–Mar 2020	-19.4%	-19.4%	ETF
2022 inflation bearJan 2022–Sep 2022	-23.9%	-23.9%	ETF

The decline windows are computed, not chosen: every peak-to-trough fall of at least 15% (month-end) in the S&P 500 series since 1985. The fund's figure compounds its monthly returns from the month after the S&P 500's peak through the trough.

SPY's own five deepest drawdowns (extended history)

Peak	Trough	Depth	Recovery	Source of the decline months
Oct 2007	Feb 2009	-50.8%	Mar 2012	ETF
Aug 2000	Sep 2002	-44.7%	Nov 2006	ETF
Aug 1987	Nov 1987	-29.8%	May 1989	VFINX
Dec 2021	Sep 2022	-23.9%	Dec 2023	ETF
Dec 2019	Mar 2020	-19.4%	Jul 2020	ETF

This covers declines the equity windows miss, such as the bond bear markets of 1994 and 2022.

Caveats

Before Feb 1993 the returns are VFINX's, after that fund's own costs; the measured gap while both existed is 0.00% a year.
Monthly month-end data: intra-month drawdowns were deeper than shown.
Dividends are reinvested; no taxes or trading costs are modeled.
Our data source's series for VFINX begins Feb 1985; the fund itself may be older.

Test it yourself

Open SPY as a one-asset portfolio in the live app, where every number recomputes from fresh data.

Open SPY (100%) in the portfolio builder →

Used in portfolios: Classic Stocks & Bonds 60/40, Conservative Stocks & Bonds 40/60, No-Brainer, Buffett 90/10, S&P 500 (100%)

Used in strategies: Time-Series Momentum — S&P 500

Used in guides: 60/40 (SPY/AGG), Buffett 90/10, No-Brainer

All fund histories →

Frequently asked questions

How far back does SPY data go?: SPY (S&P 500) has its own monthly data from Feb 1993. Spliced with VFINX it reaches back to Feb 1985, which adds 8.0 years (19% of the extended history comes from proxies). Data through Sep 2026.
What did SPY do before 1993?: Before Feb 1993 the series is VFINX's. Those 8.0 years (Feb 1985–Jan 1993) show 13.3% a year with 16.9% annualized volatility and a worst drawdown of -29.8% (Aug 1987–Nov 1987). In major S&P 500 declines: 1987 crash, -29.8% versus -29.8% for the S&P 500 (VFINX). The full extended history's worst drawdown is -50.8% (Oct 2007–Feb 2009).
How closely does VFINX track SPY?: Over 404 overlapping months (Feb 1993–Sep 2026), VFINX had a correlation of 0.998 with SPY, a tracking error of 0.8% a year and a tracking difference of 0.00% a year (grade: close).

Methodology

Source: Yahoo Finance via MarketHeist, monthly adjusted close (dividends reinvested). Months run to the last complete calendar month.
Splice rule: Each month uses the youngest fund that has data for it; returns are spliced, not prices (dividends reinvested via adjusted close).
Numbers: Computed by the MarketHeist portfolio engine as a one-asset, 100% buy-and-hold portfolio, the same calculation the live app makes. Sharpe uses a risk-free rate of 0%. Drawdowns are month-end.
Correlation: Pearson correlation of monthly returns over the months both funds have.
Tracking error: Standard deviation of the monthly return differences (proxy minus SPY) times the square root of 12.
Tracking difference: Annualized geometric return of the proxy minus that of SPY over the overlap. Positive means the proxy earned more.
Beta and vol ratio: Beta is the covariance of the proxy with SPY divided by the variance of SPY; vol ratio is the proxy's standard deviation divided by SPY's.
Grades: Close: correlation of at least 0.95 and tracking error of at most 3%. Approximate: tracking error of at most 8% and either a cash-like fund (volatility of at most 3%) or correlation of at least 0.80 with a vol ratio of at most 1.25. Category stand-in: anything weaker.
Generated: 2026-10-10; data through Sep 2026. Reproduce hash of the full extended one-asset portfolio: 04f6e236c344190d

Historical simulation, not investment advice. Past returns, including spliced proxy returns, do not predict future results.