What did TIP do before 2004?

Before Jan 2004 the series is VIPSX's. Those 3.5 years (Jul 2000–Dec 2003) show 8.0% a year with 6.2% annualized volatility and a worst drawdown of -5.3% (May 2003–Jul 2003). In major S&P 500 declines: 2000–02 dot-com bear, 21.0% versus -44.7% for the S&P 500 (VIPSX). The full extended history's worst drawdown is -13.9% (Dec 2021–Sep 2022).

How closely does VIPSX track TIP?

Over 273 overlapping months (Jan 2004–Sep 2026), VIPSX had a correlation of 0.993 with TIP, a tracking error of 0.7% a year and a tracking difference of -0.13% a year (grade: close).

How far back can you test TIP? To Jul 2000, with VIPSX

Computed by the MarketHeist portfolio engine · Published 2026-10-10 · Updated 2026-10-10 · Data through Sep 2026

TIP (TIPS (Inflation-Protected)) has its own monthly data from Jan 2004. Spliced with VIPSX it reaches back to Jul 2000, which adds 3.5 years (13% of the extended history comes from proxies). Data through Sep 2026.

What you'd have missed

TIP's own data starts in Jan 2004; VIPSX extends it to Jul 2000, 3.5 more years.
Its own history misses the 2000–02 dot-com bear.
Its worst drawdown, -13.9% (Dec 2021–Sep 2022), is already inside the ETF's own history; the extension does not change the worst case.

How the history is built

TIP (ETF) Jan 2004 → now

VIPSX (Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund, mutual fund) used Jul 2000 → Dec 2003; its own data runs Jul 2000 → now

Jul 2000Sep 2026

Solid bars are the months each fund contributes to the spliced series; the outline shows how far a proxy's own data runs. Each month uses the youngest fund that has data for it; returns are spliced, not prices (dividends reinvested via adjusted close).

How well each proxy tracked TIP

Proxy	Kind	Months contributed	Overlap with TIP	Correlation	Tracking error	Tracking difference	Beta	Vol ratio	Grade
VIPSXVanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund	mutual fund	Jul 2000–Dec 200342 months	Jan 2004–Sep 2026273 months	0.993	0.66%	-0.13%	0.98	0.99	Close

Statistics are over the months a proxy and TIP both have data. Tracking error is annualized; tracking difference is the annualized geometric gap (positive: the proxy earned more). Page grade: close, the worst grade among the proxies that contribute months.

TIP's own history versus the extended history

	The ETF's own history	Proxy years only	Full extended history
Window	Jan 2004 – Sep 202622.8 years	Jul 2000 – Dec 20033.5 years	Jul 2000 – Sep 202626.3 years
Growth of $10,000	$21,095	$13,103	$27,642
CAGR	3.3%	8.0%	3.9%
Annualized volatility	5.7%	6.2%	5.8%
Sharpe ratio (risk-free 0%)	0.61	1.28	0.70
Max drawdown	-13.9%Dec 2021 → Sep 2022; recovered Feb 2026	-5.3%May 2003 → Jul 2003; recovered Dec 2003	-13.9%Dec 2021 → Sep 2022; recovered Feb 2026
Worst complete calendar year	2022 (-12.3%)	2001 (5.4%)	2022 (-12.3%)
Best complete calendar year	2011 (13.3%)	2002 (11.8%)	2011 (13.3%)
Longest underwater (months)	75	6	75
Major declines covered	3	1	4

The columns cover different years, so a higher or lower CAGR is not a verdict on the fund; the point is which market regimes each window includes. Growth of $10,000 is the same one-asset, buy-and-hold calculation the live portfolio app makes.

Growth of $10,000

Log scale, so the early decades are not flattened. Grey is the proxy period; blue is TIP's own data. Dashed lines mark where each fund's returns begin.

Drawdowns

Decline from the prior peak at month-end, the "underwater" curve.

How TIP did in each major US stock-market decline since 1985

Decline	S&P 500	TIP over the same months	Source of those months
1987 crashSep 1987–Nov 1987	-29.8%	not covered	before available data
1998 LTCM sell-offJul 1998–Aug 1998	-15.3%	not covered	before available data
2000–02 dot-com bearSep 2000–Sep 2002	-44.7%	21.0%	VIPSX
2007–09 financial crisisNov 2007–Feb 2009	-50.8%	1.9%	ETF
2020 COVID crashJan 2020–Mar 2020	-19.4%	1.3%	ETF
2022 inflation bearJan 2022–Sep 2022	-23.9%	-13.9%	ETF

The decline windows are computed, not chosen: every peak-to-trough fall of at least 15% (month-end) in the S&P 500 series since 1985. The fund's figure compounds its monthly returns from the month after the S&P 500's peak through the trough.

TIP's own five deepest drawdowns (extended history)

Peak	Trough	Depth	Recovery	Source of the decline months
Dec 2021	Sep 2022	-13.9%	Feb 2026	ETF
Aug 2008	Oct 2008	-11.8%	Sep 2009	ETF
Nov 2012	Dec 2013	-9.2%	Mar 2019	ETF
May 2003	Jul 2003	-5.3%	Dec 2003	VIPSX
Mar 2004	Apr 2004	-4.8%	Aug 2004	ETF

This covers declines the equity windows miss, such as the bond bear markets of 1994 and 2022.

Caveats

Before Jan 2004 the returns are VIPSX's, after that fund's own costs; the measured gap while both existed is -0.13% a year.
Monthly month-end data: intra-month drawdowns were deeper than shown.
Dividends are reinvested; no taxes or trading costs are modeled.
Our data source's series for VIPSX begins Jul 2000; the fund itself may be older.

Test it yourself

Open TIP as a one-asset portfolio in the live app, where every number recomputes from fresh data.

Open TIP (100%) in the portfolio builder →

Used in portfolios: Global Asset Allocation, Wealthfront Classic, Betterment Core, Yale Endowment (Swensen), Couch Potato

Used in guides: Betterment Core, Couch Potato, Global Asset Allocation, Wealthfront Classic, Yale (Swensen)

All fund histories →

Frequently asked questions

How far back does TIP data go?: TIP (TIPS (Inflation-Protected)) has its own monthly data from Jan 2004. Spliced with VIPSX it reaches back to Jul 2000, which adds 3.5 years (13% of the extended history comes from proxies). Data through Sep 2026.
What did TIP do before 2004?: Before Jan 2004 the series is VIPSX's. Those 3.5 years (Jul 2000–Dec 2003) show 8.0% a year with 6.2% annualized volatility and a worst drawdown of -5.3% (May 2003–Jul 2003). In major S&P 500 declines: 2000–02 dot-com bear, 21.0% versus -44.7% for the S&P 500 (VIPSX). The full extended history's worst drawdown is -13.9% (Dec 2021–Sep 2022).
How closely does VIPSX track TIP?: Over 273 overlapping months (Jan 2004–Sep 2026), VIPSX had a correlation of 0.993 with TIP, a tracking error of 0.7% a year and a tracking difference of -0.13% a year (grade: close).

Methodology

Source: Yahoo Finance via MarketHeist, monthly adjusted close (dividends reinvested). Months run to the last complete calendar month.
Splice rule: Each month uses the youngest fund that has data for it; returns are spliced, not prices (dividends reinvested via adjusted close).
Numbers: Computed by the MarketHeist portfolio engine as a one-asset, 100% buy-and-hold portfolio, the same calculation the live app makes. Sharpe uses a risk-free rate of 0%. Drawdowns are month-end.
Correlation: Pearson correlation of monthly returns over the months both funds have.
Tracking error: Standard deviation of the monthly return differences (proxy minus TIP) times the square root of 12.
Tracking difference: Annualized geometric return of the proxy minus that of TIP over the overlap. Positive means the proxy earned more.
Beta and vol ratio: Beta is the covariance of the proxy with TIP divided by the variance of TIP; vol ratio is the proxy's standard deviation divided by TIP's.
Grades: Close: correlation of at least 0.95 and tracking error of at most 3%. Approximate: tracking error of at most 8% and either a cash-like fund (volatility of at most 3%) or correlation of at least 0.80 with a vol ratio of at most 1.25. Category stand-in: anything weaker.
Generated: 2026-10-10; data through Sep 2026. Reproduce hash of the full extended one-asset portfolio: 8d445b8361da6ae8

Historical simulation, not investment advice. Past returns, including spliced proxy returns, do not predict future results.