How far back can you test VXUS? To May 1996, with VGTSX
What you'd have missed
- VXUS's own data starts in Feb 2011; VGTSX extends it to May 1996, 14.8 more years.
- Its own history misses the 1998 LTCM sell-off, the 2000–02 dot-com bear and the 2007–09 financial crisis.
- The extended history's worst drawdown is -58.5% (Oct 2007–Feb 2009), versus -27.8% (May 2021–Sep 2022) in the ETF's own years.
- Its worst calendar year, 2008 (-44.1%), predates the ETF.
- VEA and VEU are extended with the same VGTSX.
How the history is built
Solid bars are the months each fund contributes to the spliced series; the outline shows how far a proxy's own data runs. Each month uses the youngest fund that has data for it; returns are spliced, not prices (dividends reinvested via adjusted close).
How well each proxy tracked VXUS
| Proxy | Kind | Months contributed | Overlap with VXUS | Correlation | Tracking error | Tracking difference | Beta | Vol ratio | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGTSXVanguard Total International Stock Index Fund | mutual fund | May 1996–Jan 2011177 months | Feb 2011–Sep 2026188 months | 0.999 | 0.77% | -0.03% | 1.00 | 1.00 | Close |
Statistics are over the months a proxy and VXUS both have data. Tracking error is annualized; tracking difference is the annualized geometric gap (positive: the proxy earned more). Page grade: close, the worst grade among the proxies that contribute months.
VXUS's own history versus the extended history
| The ETF's own history | Proxy years only | Full extended history | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Window | Feb 2011 – Sep 202615.7 years | May 1996 – Jan 201114.8 years | May 1996 – Sep 202630.4 years |
| Growth of $10,000 | $27,021 | $21,434 | $57,919 |
| CAGR | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% |
| Annualized volatility | 15.0% | 18.4% | 16.7% |
| Sharpe ratio (risk-free 0%) | 0.50 | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| Max drawdown | -27.8%May 2021 → Sep 2022; recovered May 2024 | -58.5%Oct 2007 → Feb 2009; not recovered within this window | -58.5%Oct 2007 → Feb 2009; recovered May 2017 |
| Worst complete calendar year | 2022 (-16.1%) | 2008 (-44.1%) | 2008 (-44.1%) |
| Best complete calendar year | 2025 (32.3%) | 2003 (42.0%) | 2003 (42.0%) |
| Longest underwater (months) | 35 | 61 | 114 |
| Major declines covered | 2 | 3 | 5 |
The columns cover different years, so a higher or lower CAGR is not a verdict on the fund; the point is which market regimes each window includes. Growth of $10,000 is the same one-asset, buy-and-hold calculation the live portfolio app makes.
Growth of $10,000
Drawdowns
How VXUS did in each major US stock-market decline since 1985
| Decline | S&P 500 | VXUS over the same months | Source of those months |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1987 crashSep 1987–Nov 1987 | -29.8% | not covered | before available data |
| 1998 LTCM sell-offJul 1998–Aug 1998 | -15.3% | -12.7% | VGTSX |
| 2000–02 dot-com bearSep 2000–Sep 2002 | -44.7% | -42.1% | VGTSX |
| 2007–09 financial crisisNov 2007–Feb 2009 | -50.8% | -58.5% | VGTSX |
| 2020 COVID crashJan 2020–Mar 2020 | -19.4% | -24.4% | ETF |
| 2022 inflation bearJan 2022–Sep 2022 | -23.9% | -26.6% | ETF |
The decline windows are computed, not chosen: every peak-to-trough fall of at least 15% (month-end) in the S&P 500 series since 1985. The fund's figure compounds its monthly returns from the month after the S&P 500's peak through the trough.
VXUS's own five deepest drawdowns (extended history)
| Peak | Trough | Depth | Recovery | Source of the decline months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2007 | Feb 2009 | -58.5% | May 2017 | VGTSX |
| Dec 1999 | Sep 2002 | -46.5% | Feb 2005 | VGTSX |
| May 2021 | Sep 2022 | -27.8% | May 2024 | ETF |
| Jan 2018 | Mar 2020 | -25.5% | Nov 2020 | ETF |
| Jul 1997 | Sep 1998 | -16.1% | Dec 1998 | VGTSX |
This covers declines the equity windows miss, such as the bond bear markets of 1994 and 2022.
Caveats
- Before Feb 2011 the returns are VGTSX's, after that fund's own costs; the measured gap while both existed is -0.03% a year.
- Monthly month-end data: intra-month drawdowns were deeper than shown.
- Dividends are reinvested; no taxes or trading costs are modeled.
- Our data source's series for VGTSX begins May 1996; the fund itself may be older.
Test it yourself
Open VXUS as a one-asset portfolio in the live app, where every number recomputes from fresh data.
Open VXUS (100%) in the portfolio builder →Used in portfolios: Bogleheads Three-Fund, Core Four, Coffeehouse
Used in guides: Bogleheads 3-Fund, Coffeehouse, Core Four
Frequently asked questions
- How far back does VXUS data go?
- VXUS (Total International Stock) has its own monthly data from Feb 2011. Spliced with VGTSX it reaches back to May 1996, which adds 14.8 years (48% of the extended history comes from proxies). Data through Sep 2026.
- What did VXUS do before 2011?
- Before Feb 2011 the series is VGTSX's. Those 14.8 years (May 1996–Jan 2011) show 5.3% a year with 18.4% annualized volatility and a worst drawdown of -58.5% (Oct 2007–Feb 2009). In major S&P 500 declines: 1998 LTCM sell-off, -12.7% versus -15.3% for the S&P 500 (VGTSX); 2000–02 dot-com bear, -42.1% versus -44.7% for the S&P 500 (VGTSX); 2007–09 financial crisis, -58.5% versus -50.8% for the S&P 500 (VGTSX). The full extended history's worst drawdown is -58.5% (Oct 2007–Feb 2009).
- How closely does VGTSX track VXUS?
- Over 188 overlapping months (Feb 2011–Sep 2026), VGTSX had a correlation of 0.999 with VXUS, a tracking error of 0.8% a year and a tracking difference of -0.03% a year (grade: close).
Methodology
- Source
- Yahoo Finance via MarketHeist, monthly adjusted close (dividends reinvested). Months run to the last complete calendar month.
- Splice rule
- Each month uses the youngest fund that has data for it; returns are spliced, not prices (dividends reinvested via adjusted close).
- Numbers
- Computed by the MarketHeist portfolio engine as a one-asset, 100% buy-and-hold portfolio, the same calculation the live app makes. Sharpe uses a risk-free rate of 0%. Drawdowns are month-end.
- Correlation
- Pearson correlation of monthly returns over the months both funds have.
- Tracking error
- Standard deviation of the monthly return differences (proxy minus VXUS) times the square root of 12.
- Tracking difference
- Annualized geometric return of the proxy minus that of VXUS over the overlap. Positive means the proxy earned more.
- Beta and vol ratio
- Beta is the covariance of the proxy with VXUS divided by the variance of VXUS; vol ratio is the proxy's standard deviation divided by VXUS's.
- Grades
- Close: correlation of at least 0.95 and tracking error of at most 3%. Approximate: tracking error of at most 8% and either a cash-like fund (volatility of at most 3%) or correlation of at least 0.80 with a vol ratio of at most 1.25. Category stand-in: anything weaker.
- Generated
- 2026-10-10; data through Sep 2026. Reproduce hash of the full extended one-asset portfolio:
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Historical simulation, not investment advice. Past returns, including spliced proxy returns, do not predict future results.