How far back can you test VBR? To Feb 1985, with VISVX and NAESX
VBR (US Small Cap Value) has its own monthly data from Feb 2004. Spliced with VISVX and NAESX it reaches back to Feb 1985, which adds 19.0 years (46% of the extended history comes from proxies). Data through Sep 2026.
What you'd have missed
- VBR's own data starts in Feb 2004; VISVX and NAESX extend it to Feb 1985, 19.0 more years.
- Its own history misses the 1987 crash, the 1998 LTCM sell-off and the 2000–02 dot-com bear.
- Its worst drawdown, -55.9% (May 2007–Feb 2009), is already inside the ETF's own history; the extension does not change the worst case.
- VB and IJS are extended with the same NAESX.
How the history is built
VBR (ETF) Feb 2004 → now
VISVX (Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund, mutual fund) used Jun 1998 → Jan 2004; its own data runs Jun 1998 → now
NAESX (Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund, mutual fund) used Feb 1985 → May 1998; its own data runs Feb 1985 → now
Feb 1985Sep 2026
Solid bars are the months each fund contributes to the spliced series; the outline shows how far a proxy's own data runs. Each month uses the youngest fund that has data for it; returns are spliced, not prices (dividends reinvested via adjusted close).
How well each proxy tracked VBR
| Proxy | Kind | Months contributed | Overlap with VBR | Correlation | Tracking error | Tracking difference | Beta | Vol ratio | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VISVXVanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund | mutual fund | Jun 1998–Jan 200468 months | Feb 2004–Sep 2026272 months | 0.999 | 0.79% | -0.15% | 1.00 | 1.00 | Close |
| NAESXVanguard Small-Cap Index Fund | mutual fund | Feb 1985–May 1998160 months | Feb 2004–Sep 2026272 months | 0.981 | 3.67% | +0.15% | 0.97 | 0.99 | Approximate |
| ↳ vs VISVX (the link it is spliced onto) | Jun 1998–Sep 2026340 months | 0.954 | 5.99% | -0.20% | 0.98 | 1.03 | |||
Statistics are over the months a proxy and VBR both have data. Tracking error is annualized; tracking difference is the annualized geometric gap (positive: the proxy earned more). Page grade: approximate, the worst grade among the proxies that contribute months.
VBR's own history versus the extended history
| The ETF's own history | Proxy years only | Full extended history | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Window | Feb 2004 – Sep 202622.7 years | Feb 1985 – Jan 200419.0 years | Feb 1985 – Sep 202641.7 years |
| Growth of $10,000 | $75,400 | $44,718 | $337,174 |
| CAGR | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.8% |
| Annualized volatility | 19.0% | 19.4% | 19.2% |
| Sharpe ratio (risk-free 0%) | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.54 |
| Max drawdown | -55.9%May 2007 → Feb 2009; recovered Feb 2011 | -51.0%May 1986 → Oct 1990; recovered Jul 1993 | -55.9%May 2007 → Feb 2009; recovered Feb 2011 |
| Worst complete calendar year | 2008 (-32.2%) | 1990 (-19.4%) | 2008 (-32.2%) |
| Best complete calendar year | 2013 (36.6%) | 1991 (45.2%) | 1991 (45.2%) |
| Longest underwater (months) | 44 | 85 | 85 |
| Major declines covered | 3 | 3 | 6 |
The columns cover different years, so a higher or lower CAGR is not a verdict on the fund; the point is which market regimes each window includes. Growth of $10,000 is the same one-asset, buy-and-hold calculation the live portfolio app makes.
Growth of $10,000
Drawdowns
How VBR did in each major US stock-market decline since 1985
| Decline | S&P 500 | VBR over the same months | Source of those months |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1987 crashSep 1987–Nov 1987 | -29.8% | -38.8% | NAESX |
| 1998 LTCM sell-offJul 1998–Aug 1998 | -15.3% | -25.4% | VISVX |
| 2000–02 dot-com bearSep 2000–Sep 2002 | -44.7% | 0.3% | VISVX |
| 2007–09 financial crisisNov 2007–Feb 2009 | -50.8% | -53.0% | ETF |
| 2020 COVID crashJan 2020–Mar 2020 | -19.4% | -35.0% | ETF |
| 2022 inflation bearJan 2022–Sep 2022 | -23.9% | -18.7% | ETF |
The decline windows are computed, not chosen: every peak-to-trough fall of at least 15% (month-end) in the S&P 500 series since 1985. The fund's figure compounds its monthly returns from the month after the S&P 500's peak through the trough.
VBR's own five deepest drawdowns (extended history)
| Peak | Trough | Depth | Recovery | Source of the decline months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2007 | Feb 2009 | -55.9% | Feb 2011 | ETF |
| May 1986 | Oct 1990 | -51.0% | Jul 1993 | NAESX |
| Aug 2018 | Mar 2020 | -35.3% | Dec 2020 | ETF |
| Apr 2002 | Mar 2003 | -31.3% | Dec 2003 | VISVX |
| Apr 1998 | Aug 1998 | -29.4% | Dec 2000 | NAESX + VISVX |
This covers declines the equity windows miss, such as the bond bear markets of 1994 and 2022.
Caveats
- Before Feb 2004 the returns are VISVX's, after that fund's own costs; the measured gap while both existed is -0.15% a year.
- Before Jun 1998 the returns are NAESX's, after that fund's own costs; the measured gap while both existed is +0.15% a year.
- Monthly month-end data: intra-month drawdowns were deeper than shown.
- Dividends are reinvested; no taxes or trading costs are modeled.
- Our data source's series for NAESX begins Feb 1985; the fund itself may be older.
Test it yourself
Open VBR as a one-asset portfolio in the live app, where every number recomputes from fresh data.
Open VBR (100%) in the portfolio builder →Used in portfolios: Coffeehouse
Used in guides: Coffeehouse
Frequently asked questions
- How far back does VBR data go?
- VBR (US Small Cap Value) has its own monthly data from Feb 2004. Spliced with VISVX and NAESX it reaches back to Feb 1985, which adds 19.0 years (46% of the extended history comes from proxies). Data through Sep 2026.
- What did VBR do before 2004?
- Before Feb 2004 the series is VISVX and NAESX's. Those 19.0 years (Feb 1985–Jan 2004) show 8.2% a year with 19.4% annualized volatility and a worst drawdown of -51.0% (May 1986–Oct 1990). In major S&P 500 declines: 1987 crash, -38.8% versus -29.8% for the S&P 500 (NAESX); 1998 LTCM sell-off, -25.4% versus -15.3% for the S&P 500 (VISVX); 2000–02 dot-com bear, 0.3% versus -44.7% for the S&P 500 (VISVX). The full extended history's worst drawdown is -55.9% (May 2007–Feb 2009).
- How closely does VISVX track VBR?
- Over 272 overlapping months (Feb 2004–Sep 2026), VISVX had a correlation of 0.999 with VBR, a tracking error of 0.8% a year and a tracking difference of -0.15% a year (grade: close). Over 272 overlapping months (Feb 2004–Sep 2026), NAESX had a correlation of 0.981 with VBR, a tracking error of 3.7% a year and a tracking difference of +0.15% a year (grade: approximate).
Methodology
- Source
- Yahoo Finance via MarketHeist, monthly adjusted close (dividends reinvested). Months run to the last complete calendar month.
- Splice rule
- Each month uses the youngest fund that has data for it; returns are spliced, not prices (dividends reinvested via adjusted close).
- Numbers
- Computed by the MarketHeist portfolio engine as a one-asset, 100% buy-and-hold portfolio, the same calculation the live app makes. Sharpe uses a risk-free rate of 0%. Drawdowns are month-end.
- Correlation
- Pearson correlation of monthly returns over the months both funds have.
- Tracking error
- Standard deviation of the monthly return differences (proxy minus VBR) times the square root of 12.
- Tracking difference
- Annualized geometric return of the proxy minus that of VBR over the overlap. Positive means the proxy earned more.
- Beta and vol ratio
- Beta is the covariance of the proxy with VBR divided by the variance of VBR; vol ratio is the proxy's standard deviation divided by VBR's.
- Grades
- Close: correlation of at least 0.95 and tracking error of at most 3%. Approximate: tracking error of at most 8% and either a cash-like fund (volatility of at most 3%) or correlation of at least 0.80 with a vol ratio of at most 1.25. Category stand-in: anything weaker.
- Generated
- 2026-10-10; data through Sep 2026. Reproduce hash of the full extended one-asset portfolio:
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Historical simulation, not investment advice. Past returns, including spliced proxy returns, do not predict future results.